What would be the goals of a
sane and compassionate world?
According to one UN Under
Secretary General, these would be: "preventing wars, promoting democracy
and eradicating poverty."
But excessive human
population is the elephant in the room. Almost every problem we have is based
on population growth—pollution, poverty, scarcity of resources, the destruction
of species and rape of the environment. But this is rarely if ever mentioned
because it is impossible to address without losing votes or business favour. Corporations
demand more customers or Units of Consumption. Which pressure group, for
instance, do you think is pushing Australian immigration?
From AD 1 to 1750, world
population was a flat line—stable. It rose steadily, from 1950 until the chart
became near-vertical. From the 1900s, the curve is exponential—the line on the
chart goes straight up. It took a century to go from one billion to two. Twelve
years to go from four to five. Now it's a million every four days. A second China in ten
years. World population will double in fifty years.
And the more people, the
bigger the fight over dwindling resources. Get rid of the nationalistic spin
and wars are almost always about resources. So we either destroy ourselves or
control population growth.
You might consider that the
function of war. No. Disease has always killed more people. But now we live too
long. We're victims of medical advances. So, failing a plague or nuclear
catastrophe, how do we cull populations?
Reducing births through
government coercion isn't efficient enough. China's proved that. You're up
against common instinct, traditional values. Bu the way, China has much
to gain from flooding the world with people. For instance, the diaspora sends
money back to relatives on the mainland. And there are at least 300 million
unemployed so emigration's a safety valve against social instability. Now
relate this to soft war.
Notice how more and more
illegal immigrants wash against the shores of the world? Could emigration be
used as a weapon?
Or would soft war involve
sterilisation?
There's some evidence that
sneak sterilisation trials have been run in several third world nations, last
time in Manila.
But that's difficult if it becomes public knowledge, as well as expensive and
political disaster.
Perhaps one day some nation
will weaponize AIDS by marrying it to the flu virus —long considered the best
bio-weapon airborne delivery system.
Yes, this is a slightly
satirical talk. But don't relax.
The facts are stark. In fifty
years, population growth will exceed food production. By the way, it takes a
tonne of oil to produce twelve tonnes of grain. And production of accessible
oil will peak in 2030.
Will starvation do the trick?
People are cooking each other in parts of North Korea now.
Failing an advanced technique
that ensures death at forty—and given ethics that prevent us sterilising or
infecting friendly nations, what's the solution.
Certainly not all-out nuclear
war. That also equates to bio-system destruction. No. The practical way to
control a nuclear armed foe is to do it without firing a weapon.
Use hard war as passive
defence and soft war as a pre-emptive strike. But as you can't sell soft war to
the electorate, it has to be a sneak attack.
Soft war. Think about it.
Some say the attack on Kosovo
was designed to raise the US dollar against an encroaching euro.
I've suggested that soft war
is increasingly a possibility. And I've said it will be covert. Something you
won't immediately spot.
For instance, Western culture
—our barrage of films and TV —is a tremendous soft war tool. Perhaps the best
we have.
Another is Globalisation!
Let's quickly examine
democracy's big brother, free market globalisation. Free for whom? Supply-side
economics, functioning without distortion or corruption, is effective. But its
ideology is a veneer that covers a thousand abuses.
As Chairman of Intel, Andy
Grove said, "The purpose of the new Capitalism is to shoot the
wounded."
We're told that the profit
motive can serve the public good. But do you buy that without qualification?
Does free trade assist the poor, or create them?
Ask a coffee farmer in Ethiopia, the middle class in Argentina or the protestors in Venezuela, Bolivia
and Nigeria.
Remember that America had an oil tycoon President who was
funded by Enron and elected by alleged vote rigging in Florida. Be aware that the IMF is 50% owned
by the US
treasury. The philosophy of the IMF, World Bank and WTO which can be taken as a
triumvirate, is basically liberalised financial markets, smaller government,
privatisation and the rest... This, in practice, translates as a savage
reduction in government services and social security. According to one Nobel
prize laureate, "repression and economic liberalisation are
bedfellows."
In April 2000, the World Bank
gathered nearly 1000 executives and bureaucrats in the Hague to discuss the privatisation of the
world's water systems.
By the way, their five
measures for a flexible private sector workforce are:
Reduce salaries and benefits.
Reduce pensions.
Reduce job stability.
Reduce employment.
Increase working hours.
Sound familiar? The gig
economy is now here.
Now we know from the
supermarket chains that a monopoly fleeces customers at one end while squeezing
suppliers at the other. And Napster shows that intellectual property rights
have everything to do with corporate control.
GATS (general agreement on
trade and services) has a plan to establish an international agency to veto or
regulate the government decisions of individual nations. This agency, unlike
parliaments, will hold closed hearings. One of its aims is to remove restrains
on business. So that the public good becomes victim to the most "cost
effective" way to deal with, for instance, pollution, transport safety,
contaminated water. The rationalisations are inevitably supported by well
compensated academics.
We know that contamination
credits are an idea spawned by the business community. That while petrochemical
cartels, such as BP paint their retail outlets green, they've done everything
possible by misinformation and years of procrastination and denials, to pay lip
service to new greener technologies while stonewalling all attempts to
introduce them. But, just like everything, Globalisation will reach its limits
and self-destruct.
Let's come back to the goals
of a sane and compassionate world.
Preventing conflict,
promoting democracy and eradicating poverty.
And what do we have?
...Violence. Plutocracy. Exploitation. A thousand evils sugared with fine
words.
The future?
Predicting the future's
hazardous. Because things happen in ways we never thought of. But, soft war
will never cull populations. Governments are too venal. There is currently no
mileage in genocide. People are cash cows to be milked.
But I believe we could agree
on one thing. Areas of nuclear contamination.
If it can be done, it will be
done. Just too much stuff out there. Too many egos. And too many chances for
snafus in systems and chains of command.
Some time, somewhere,
something or someone will snap.
Yes, the threat of nuclear
winter or eco-death is a tough sale politically. But get people spooked about
an enemy attack and the attitude flips.
That's why nations from North Korea and Pakistan are playing with the
matchbox now.
As the hair ad says: "It
won't happen overnight. But it will happen."
Now, a final perspective.
What if the problem and its solution are not in our hands at all? That we are
not the cause—merely the symptom? What if nature—utterly indifferent to stupid
little us and red in tooth and claw—requires our proliferation for some purpose?
And, in good time, intends to destroy us, or enable us to destroy ourselves. It
happened with the dinosaurs and thousands of other species. Why are we so
special? If we don't shape up, it will ship us out as another failed
experiment.
Too bleak?
That's why it's probably
true.